Latest
Checked Oct. 21, 2026
The pending decisions that will decide where prediction markets can operate. Each question names the court or agency that will settle it, the next dated step and exactly what counts as Yes or No. When a ruling comes in, we record the outcome and link the order.
Next: New York's optional reply on the CFTC's new rules due Oct. 231 day
Argued Sept. 14Oct. 23
Resolves Yes if the court grants the federal government's preliminary injunction motion in United States v. New York, in whole or in part. No if it denies it.
S.D.N.Y. No. 1:26-cv-03404. Source: DeFi Rate tracker
Next: Kalshi's opening brief due Nov. 615 days
Appeal docketed Sept. 17Nov. 6
Resolves Yes if the court reverses or vacates the denial of Kalshi's preliminary injunction in KalshiEX v. Bird, No if it affirms.
Eighth Circuit No. 26-2874. Source: Court docket
Next: Kalshi's response due Nov. 918 days
Docketed Sept. 8Nov. 9
Resolves Yes if the Court grants review in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No if it denies the petition.
Supreme Court No. 26-299. Source: Supreme Court docket
Next: responses due Nov. 1322 days
Docketed Sept. 14Nov. 13
Resolves Yes if the Court grants review in Robinhood Derivatives v. Dreitzer, No if it denies the petition.
Supreme Court No. 26-338. Source: Supreme Court docket
Next: responses due Nov. 1625 days
Docketed Sept. 15Nov. 16
Resolves Yes if the Court grants review in North American Derivatives Exchange v. Nevada, No if it denies the petition.
Supreme Court No. 26-344. Source: Supreme Court docket
Next: show-cause hearing Nov. 2433 days
Motion filed Sept. 29Nov. 24
Resolves Yes if the Ingham County court finds Kalshi in civil contempt of its Sept. 1 injunction, No if it declines.
Ingham County Circuit Court No. 26-1087-CZ. Source: DeFi Rate
No decision date set171 days since argument
Argued May 4Pending
Resolves Yes if the Supreme Judicial Court affirms the Superior Court's preliminary injunction against Kalshi, No if it vacates or reverses it.
Mass. SJC No. SJC-13906. Source: Bloomberg
No decision date set168 days since argument
Argued May 7Pending
Resolves Yes if the court reverses or vacates the denial of Kalshi's preliminary injunction in KalshiEX v. Martin, No if it affirms.
Fourth Circuit No. 25-1892. Source: Court docket
No decision date set87 days since comments closed
Comments closed July 27Pending
Resolves Yes if the CFTC publishes a final rule (RIN 3038-AF65) in the Federal Register, No if it withdraws the proposal.
Federal Register, 91 FR 35806. Source: Federal Register (PDF)
No decision date set78 days since the appeal was docketed
Appeal docketed Aug. 5Pending
Resolves Yes if the court reverses or vacates the district court's judgment for Utah in KalshiEx v. Cox, No if it affirms.
Tenth Circuit No. 26-4100. Source: Court docket
No decision date set43 days since the petition
Petition filed Sept. 9Pending
Resolves Yes if the court grants rehearing en banc in KalshiEX v. Assad, No if it denies it.
Ninth Circuit No. 25-7516. Source: Court filing citing the petition (PDF)
No decision date set13 days since the petition
Petition filed Oct. 9Pending
Resolves Yes if the court grants panel rehearing or rehearing en banc in KalshiEX v. Schuler and KalshiEX v. Orgel, No if it denies both.
Sixth Circuit Nos. 26-3196 and 26-5235. Source: Kalshi's petition (PDF)
Will a federal judge block Illinois from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets?
On Oct. 2, Judge Pacold granted the preliminary-injunction motions in part in the Kalshi, Coinbase and federal cases; fee challenges were held for more briefing. The injunction itself has not been entered; proposed terms are due Oct. 29. N.D. Ill. No. 1:26-cv-03659. Source: Opinion and order (PDF)
Will a Sixth Circuit panel side with Kalshi against Ohio and Tennessee?
The panel affirmed the denial of Kalshi's injunction in Ohio and vacated Kalshi's injunction in Tennessee and remanded. Kalshi has asked for rehearing. Sixth Circuit Nos. 26-3196 and 26-5235. Source: Opinion
Will a federal judge grant Kalshi a preliminary injunction against Iowa?
Judge Locher denied Kalshi's preliminary injunction. Kalshi appealed to the Eighth Circuit. S.D. Iowa No. 4:26-cv-00109. Source: Courthouse News
Will the Tenth Circuit shield Kalshi from Utah while it appeals?
The court denied Kalshi's emergency motion for an injunction pending appeal. Tenth Circuit No. 26-4100. Source: SBC Americas
Will a Michigan judge grant a preliminary injunction against Kalshi's sports contracts?
Judge Aquilina's Sept. 1 order, following a June 29 temporary restraining order, requires Kalshi to stop sports contracts in Michigan and geoblock the state until a final order. Ingham County Circuit Court No. 26-1087-CZ. Source: Court order (PDF)
Judge Menendez preliminarily enjoined enforcement of the ban against the exchanges that sued, days before its Aug. 1 effective date, in the federal, Kalshi and Polymarket US cases. D. Minn. No. 0:26-cv-02661. Source: Legal Sports Report
Will the Third Circuit keep Kalshi's injunction against New Jersey in place?
A divided panel affirmed the preliminary injunction, 2-1. New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to review it. Third Circuit No. 25-1922. Source: Opinion
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