Federal · H.R. 3633
The CLARITY Act and prediction markets
Why a crypto bill shows up in prediction-market searches, what it would and wouldn’t change for Kalshi and Polymarket, and where it stands in Congress. We track the bill, not the odds.
The short answer
The CLARITY Act is a crypto market-structure bill, not a prediction-market law. It passed the House in July 2025, but on Sept. 15, 2026 a Senate vote to begin debate failed 49 to 50, short of the 60 needed.1,2 As written, it does not directly regulate event contracts.3
What the bill does
H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, would regulate the offer and sale of digital commodities, dividing oversight between the SEC and the CFTC.2 Rep. French Hill introduced it in May 2025.3 Its link to prediction markets is indirect: the CFTC, which regulates exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket US, would take on a larger role in crypto.
Where it stands
Status: stalled in the Senate. The House passed it in July 2025. A Senate vote to begin debate failed 49 to 50 on Sept. 15, 2026, and a motion to reconsider was entered. No later action as of the last check. Checked Nov. 5, 2026.
Introduced in the House by Rep. French Hill.3
Passed the House, 294 to 134.1
Senate Agriculture advanced a separate market-structure bill, S. 3755, 12 to 11.3
Senate Banking advanced H.R. 3633 with a substitute amendment, 15 to 9.3
Senate cloture on the motion to proceed failed, 49 to 50 (60 needed). Sen. Tillis entered a motion to reconsider.2
Cloture needed three-fifths of the Senate. After the vote Sen. Thom Tillis entered a motion to reconsider, which keeps the bill available for another attempt.2,3
What it means for prediction markets
Less than the search traffic suggests. A review of the bill’s text found that it does not directly regulate prediction markets or event contracts and does not amend Rule 40.11, the CFTC rule barring contracts that involve gaming.3,4 It would not settle the fight over whether states can regulate sports contracts, which is in the courts: see the circuit split.
Gaming groups have pushed to change that. In May 2026 the American Gaming Association and the Indian Gaming Association asked Congress for language making clear that sports betting can’t be offered nationwide through federally registered platforms, and a June 16, 2026 coalition letter asked lawmakers to ban sports and casino contracts in this bill.5,6
Polymarket lists a market on whether the bill becomes law,7 which is why the two are often searched together. We don’t publish odds or forecasts; this page tracks what Congress has actually done.
The bills that would regulate prediction markets
We track 31 federal bills and resolutions written about prediction markets, of which 1 has passed a chamber. They include the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 (H.R. 7004), the End Prediction Market Corruption Act (S. 4017), the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act of 2026 (S. 4060) and the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act (S. 4160). See all of them on the bills tracker.
Questions
- What is the CLARITY Act?
- H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025. A crypto market-structure bill that would split oversight of digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC. It is not a prediction-market bill.
- Did the CLARITY Act pass?
- Not yet. The House passed it in July 2025. A Senate vote to begin debate failed 49 to 50 on Sept. 15, 2026, and a motion to reconsider was entered. No later action as of the last check.
- Does the CLARITY Act affect Kalshi and Polymarket?
- Not directly. As written it does not regulate prediction markets or event contracts and would not change the CFTC rule on gaming contracts or settle whether states can regulate sports contracts. Gaming groups asked Congress to add a ban on sports and casino contracts to it.
- Why does Polymarket have a market on the CLARITY Act?
- Prediction markets list contracts on whether bills become law, and this bill is closely watched in crypto. We don't publish odds; this page tracks what Congress has actually done.
- What happens next?
- The motion to reconsider keeps the bill available for another Senate vote, which would again need 60 votes to proceed. A bill that is not enacted before the 119th Congress ends in January 2027 has to be introduced again.