Federal rules for prediction markets

CFTC rulemaking

CFTC proposes defining event contracts as swaps. The Commission proposed "Further Definition of 'Swap' - Inclusions" (RIN 3038-AF82), stating that event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather are swaps within its jurisdiction. It was published October 19, 2026 at 91 FR 66022, with comments due 30 days after publication.

Source: CFTC Release 9310-26

CFTC rulemaking

CFTC interim final rule excludes casino-style gambling from swap definition. The Commission adopted an interim final rule (RIN 3038-AF81) codifying that sportsbook wagers and casino games are not swaps. It took effect when published on October 19, 2026 (91 FR 65969), with comments accepted for 30 days.

Source: CFTC Release 9309-26

CFTC rulemaking

CFTC sends two swap-definition rules to White House review. The CFTC submitted two rules to OIRA: an interim final rule excluding casino-style gambling products from the swap definition, and a proposed rule adding event contracts to it.

Source: The Block

Federal court

Sixth Circuit lets Ohio and Tennessee enforce gambling laws against Kalshi. A unanimous panel found Kalshi had not shown its sports contracts are swaps, and held that even if they were, the CEA would not preempt Ohio's or Tennessee's gambling laws (KalshiEX v. Schuler; KalshiEX v. Orgel). Kalshi sought rehearing en banc on October 9.

Source: Proskauer client alert

Federal court

Kalshi's Supreme Court response deadline moved to November 9. The Clerk extended Kalshi's response deadline in No. 26-299 from October 8 to November 9, 2026. Amicus briefs supporting review followed from Ohio and 38 other states plus D.C., 145 tribes, the NFL, the American Gaming Association, former CFTC Chairman Gensler and others.

Source: Supreme Court docket No. 26-299

CFTC guidance

DMO advisory on mention markets. Staff Letter 26-27 described the heightened manipulation risk of contracts that settle on what a person says or does. It set out the narrow conditions and factors for listing such contracts.

Source: CFTC Release 9302-26

Federal court

Ninth Circuit revives tribal IGRA claim against Kalshi. In Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi, the Ninth Circuit reversed the part of a preliminary-injunction denial that rested on the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and sent the remaining factors back to the district court.

Source: DeFi Rate legal snapshot

CFTC in court

CFTC seeks preliminary injunction against Connecticut. In its District of Connecticut suit, the CFTC and the United States moved for a preliminary injunction against Connecticut's enforcement of its gambling laws against DCMs.

Source: DeFi Rate legal snapshot

Federal court

New Jersey petitions the Supreme Court in Flaherty v. KalshiEX. New Jersey filed a certiorari petition (No. 26-299, docketed September 8) asking the Court to decide whether the CEA preempts state gambling laws as applied to sports event contracts on CFTC-registered exchanges.

Source: Supreme Court docket No. 26-299

Federal court

Ninth Circuit rules for Nevada against Kalshi. In KalshiEX v. Assad (No. 25-7516, consolidated), a unanimous panel (Nelson, Bade and Lee) held Kalshi unlikely to show its sports contracts are swaps and affirmed rulings that let Nevada enforce its gaming laws. This created a split with the Third Circuit. Kalshi petitioned for rehearing on September 9.

Source: Justia docket, Ninth Cir. No. 25-7516

CFTC enforcement

CFTC settles insider-trading case over presidential mention markets. A former White House teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, agreed to pay about $172,000 and accept a three-year trading ban to settle charges that he traded presidential mention contracts using advance access to speeches.

Source: CFTC Release 9289-26

CFTC guidance

Innovation Advisory Committee holds first meeting. The committee's first meeting, in Washington, included a session on prediction markets and novel event contracts.

Source: CFTC Release 9288-26

CFTC guidance

DMO advisory on prediction-market incentive programs. Staff told DCMs what self-certified market-maker and trading-incentive program filings must contain, after seeing deficient filings tied mostly to event contracts.

Source: CFTC Release 9282-26

CFTC enforcement

CFTC uses emergency authority to keep Kalshi operating. New York's Attorney General sued KalshiEX in state court on July 31, seeking to bar its event contracts and over $36 billion in damages. The CFTC then acted on Kalshi's notice of a market emergency and ordered the exchange to keep operating under the CEA Core Principles.

Source: CFTC Release 9281-26

CFTC designation

JuiceX announces CFTC designation. JuiceX announced that the CFTC had designated it as a contract market. It plans to list in-game sports event contracts.

Source: JuiceX press release (Cision)

CFTC enforcement

CFTC settles manipulation charges with George Santos. Former Rep. George Santos agreed to pay about $35,000 and accept a three-year trading ban to settle charges that he manipulated a contract on whether he would attend the State of the Union, an outcome he controlled.

Source: CFTC Release 9276-26

CFTC in court

CFTC and DOJ seek TRO against New York enforcement. In their SDNY case, the CFTC and DOJ asked for a temporary restraining order to stop New York from enforcing its gambling laws against CFTC-regulated platforms.

Source: K&L Gates 2026 Mid-Year Prediction Market Report

CFTC in court

Federal court denies CFTC injunction against Wisconsin. The Eastern District of Wisconsin denied the CFTC's motion for a preliminary injunction against Wisconsin's enforcement actions. It was the first district court loss in the CFTC's suits against states.

Source: K&L Gates 2026 Mid-Year Prediction Market Report

CFTC rulemaking

Comment period closes on the Rule 40.11 proposal. Comments on the public-interest determinations proposal were due. K&L Gates counted more than 1,393 comments. No final rule had been announced as of October 21, 2026.

Source: Federal Register, 91 FR 35806 (GovInfo)

Federal court

Federal court enjoins Minnesota's prediction-market ban. The District of Minnesota granted a preliminary injunction against Minnesota's new law criminalizing prediction markets, days before its August 1 effective date. The CFTC had sued over the law in May.

Source: K&L Gates 2026 Mid-Year Prediction Market Report

CFTC guidance

DMO advisory on self-certifying event-contract series. Staff Letter 26-22 told DCMs not to file broad template-style self-certifications covering many contract variations, and explained when related contracts may be certified as a class.

Source: CFTC Release 9273-26

CFTC enforcement

CFTC emergency order makes Kalshi fulfill Michigan trades. After a Michigan state court ordered Kalshi to cancel executed trades, the CFTC stayed Kalshi's emergency rule change and used its emergency authority to order the open trades fulfilled under Kalshi's normal practices.

Source: CFTC Release 9267-26

Federal court

New Jersey seeks more time to petition the Supreme Court. New Jersey applied (No. 25A1465) for more time to seek certiorari from the Third Circuit ruling. Justice Alito granted extensions on July 1 and July 24 that moved the deadline to September 3, 2026.

Source: Supreme Court docket No. 25A1465

CFTC rulemaking

CFTC proposes reporting framework for event contracts. The Commission proposed amending Parts 15-17 to set an alternative data-reporting framework for certain fully collateralized event contracts (91 FR 40102), replacing relief that had rested on staff no-action letters since 2017.

Source: CFTC Release 9261-26

CFTC in court

CFTC sues Kentucky. The CFTC sued Kentucky over the state's civil enforcement suits against DCMs and a new state transaction fee on DCMs.

Source: CFTC Release 9260-26

CFTC rulemaking

CFTC and SEC seek comment on derivatives product definitions. The two agencies jointly requested comment on clarifying and harmonizing the swap and security-based swap definitions, a question at the center of the event-contract preemption cases. Comments were due August 24, 2026.

Source: K&L Gates 2026 Mid-Year Prediction Market Report

CFTC designation

Novig announces CFTC designation. Sports-focused operator Novig announced that the CFTC had approved it as a designated contract market about six months after it applied. The exact order date was not published in the sources reviewed.

Source: SBC Americas

CFTC in court

CFTC sues New Mexico. The CFTC sued New Mexico in federal court a week after the state filed a state-court complaint calling Kalshi's sports contracts unlawful online sports betting.

Source: CFTC Release 9251-26

CFTC rulemaking

CFTC proposes public-interest rule for event contracts (Rule 40.11, Appendix F). The Commission proposed amending Rule 40.11 and adding Appendix F to Part 40. The proposal sets a review process, defines "gaming" and "involve," and lists public-interest factors for contracts involving war, terrorism, assassination, gaming or unlawful activity. It was published June 12, 2026 at 91 FR 35806.

Source: CFTC Release 9249-26

CFTC in court

CFTC intervenes in Rhode Island case. The CFTC moved to join a DCM's suit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Rhode Island after the state filed a parallel state-court enforcement case seeking civil penalties.

Source: CFTC Release 9238-26

Justice Department

Google engineer charged over Polymarket search-ranking trades. SDNY unsealed a criminal complaint and the CFTC filed parallel civil charges against Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo. Both allege he used nonpublic Year in Search data to trade at least 23 Polymarket contracts, for about $1.2 million in profit.

Source: CFTC Release 9237-26

White House

President Trump backs CFTC's exclusive authority. In a Truth Social post, President Trump said it was critically important to keep the CFTC's exclusive authority over prediction markets, endorsing Chairman Selig's position.

Source: The Block

CFTC guidance

CFTC signs integrity MOU with the NHL. The CFTC and the National Hockey League agreed to share information and coordinate on hockey integrity and related event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges.

Source: CFTC Release 9235-26

CFTC in court

CFTC sues Minnesota over new felony law. The CFTC sued Minnesota and sought a preliminary injunction against a new state law, effective August 1, 2026, that makes operating a prediction market a felony.

Source: CFTC Release 9233-26

CFTC in court

CFTC files amicus brief in the Sixth Circuit. In KalshiEx v. Schuler (No. 26-3196), the Ohio appeal, the CFTC argued that the federal scheme preempts state law as applied to CFTC-regulated markets and that the district court read its jurisdiction too narrowly.

Source: CFTC Release 9230-26

Federal court

Fourth Circuit hears Kalshi's Maryland appeal. The Fourth Circuit heard argument in KalshiEX v. Martin (No. 25-1892), Kalshi's appeal from the denial of a preliminary injunction against Maryland regulators. As of October 20, 2026 no decision had been reported.

Source: Finance Magnates

CFTC in court

Arizona federal court grants CFTC preliminary injunction. The District of Arizona granted the CFTC and DOJ a preliminary injunction in their case against Arizona. The case was later stayed pending the Ninth Circuit, and Arizona has asked the Ninth Circuit to vacate the injunction as to sports contracts.

Source: K&L Gates 2026 Mid-Year Prediction Market Report

Congress

Senate adopts rule barring senators from prediction markets. The Senate agreed to S. Res. 708 (Sen. Bernie Moreno), amending Senate Rule XXXVII to bar senators, officers and employees from event-contract trading. It is the only federal prediction-market measure adopted so far, and as a Senate rules change it needs no House action.

Source: S. Res. 708, agreed-to text (GovInfo)

Congress

Bipartisan McCormick-Gillibrand bill would set a federal framework. Sens. Dave McCormick and Kirsten Gillibrand introduced S. 4469, the Prediction Market Act of 2026. It would write event-contract rules into the CEA, keep CFTC case-by-case review, and bar members of Congress and certain officials from trading.

Source: S. 4469 bill text (GovInfo)

CFTC in court

CFTC sues Wisconsin. The CFTC sued Wisconsin days after the state filed civil suits against Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood and Coinbase.

Source: CFTC Release 9220-26

CFTC in court

CFTC sues New York. The CFTC sued New York in the Southern District of New York to stop the state from applying its gambling laws to CFTC-registered DCMs. The same day it filed a brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court backing exclusive federal jurisdiction (Commonwealth v. KalshiEx, SJC-13906).

Source: CFTC Release 9218-26

Justice Department

Army service member indicted over Maduro-related Polymarket trades. SDNY prosecutors indicted Gannon Ken Van Dyke, and the CFTC filed a parallel civil case. Both allege he used nonpublic information about the operation to capture Nicolas Maduro to trade a Polymarket contract, making over $404,000.

Source: CFTC Release 9217-26

CFTC in court

Federal court blocks Arizona criminal case against a DCM. At the CFTC's request, the U.S. District Court for the District of Arizona issued a temporary restraining order halting Arizona's criminal proceedings against CFTC-regulated contract markets.

Source: CFTC Release 9211-26

Federal court

Third Circuit sides with Kalshi against New Jersey. In KalshiEX v. Flaherty (No. 25-1922), a divided Third Circuit panel affirmed a preliminary injunction barring New Jersey from enforcing its gaming laws against Kalshi's sports event contracts. It found the CEA likely preempts those laws as applied.

Source: Supreme Court docket No. 26-299 (lower-court judgment date)

CFTC in court

CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois. The CFTC filed its first suits against states, seeking declarations that it has exclusive authority over event contracts on DCMs and injunctions against enforcement of state gambling laws. These suits began a series of federal actions against states.

Source: CFTC Release 9206-26

CFTC enforcement

Enforcement Director names prediction-market insider trading a priority. CFTC Director of Enforcement David Miller named insider trading in prediction markets as one of the division's priorities for 2026.

Source: K&L Gates 2026 Mid-Year Prediction Market Report

Congress

Merkley-Raskin bill would ban sports, election and military contracts. Sen. Merkley (S. 4226) and Rep. Jamie Raskin (H.R. 8123) introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act. It would prohibit event contracts on elections, government and military actions and sports, preserve state gambling laws, and order a GAO study.

Source: Rep. Raskin press release

Congress

Budzinski's PREDICT Act targets political-contract trading by officials. Rep. Nikki Budzinski, with Reps. Adrian Smith and Seth Magaziner, introduced H.R. 8076, the PREDICT Act. It would bar members of Congress, staff, senior executive officials and federal judges from trading political event contracts.

Source: H.R. 8076 bill text (GovInfo)

CFTC guidance

Selig forms CFTC Innovation Task Force. Selig created an Innovation Task Force, led by senior advisor Michael Passalacqua. Prediction markets and event contracts are one of its three focus areas, alongside crypto assets and AI.

Source: CFTC Release 9201-26

Congress

Bipartisan Senate bill would bar sports contracts. Sens. Adam Schiff, John Curtis and Catherine Cortez Masto introduced S. 4160, the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, to stop registered entities from listing sports and casino-style contracts. Nevada Reps. Horsford and Amodei filed a House version (H.R. 9856) on July 22.

Source: S. 4160 bill text (GovInfo)

CFTC guidance

CFTC signs integrity MOU with Major League Baseball. The CFTC and MLB agreed to share information on the integrity of professional baseball and related prediction markets, the agency's first such agreement with a sports league.

Source: CFTC Release 9199-26

CFTC guidance

Division of Market Oversight issues prediction-markets advisory. DMO staff reminded DCMs of their obligations when listing event contracts, including Core Principle 3 and product-submission rules, with points specific to sports-related contracts. The release links to CFTC Staff Letter 26-08.

Source: CFTC Release 9193-26

CFTC rulemaking

CFTC issues prediction-markets ANPRM. The Commission issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking, "Prediction Markets" (RIN 3038-AF65). It asks about core principles, inside information, public-interest reviews and how event contracts are classified. It was published March 16, 2026 at 91 FR 12516, with comments due April 30, 2026.

Source: CFTC Federal Register page, 91 FR 12516

Congress

Merkley bill would bar President and Congress from event-contract trading. Sen. Jeff Merkley and four Democratic cosponsors introduced S. 4017, the End Prediction Market Corruption Act, covering the President, Vice President and members of Congress. A bipartisan House bill (H.R. 7840) introduced the same day would prohibit several categories of event contracts.

Source: S. 4017 bill text (GovInfo)

CFTC enforcement

CFTC Enforcement Division issues prediction-markets advisory. The Division of Enforcement said the Commission can pursue insider trading, wash trading, manipulation and fraud on any DCM. It cited two 2025 Kalshi disciplinary cases: a candidate who traded on his own race and a YouTube channel editor.

Source: CFTC Release 9185-26

CFTC in court

CFTC amicus brief backs exclusive jurisdiction in Ninth Circuit. In its first amicus filing for operators, the CFTC told the Ninth Circuit in North American Derivatives Exchange v. Nevada that it has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts on DCMs and that states may not separately regulate them.

Source: CFTC Release 9183-26

CFTC guidance

Innovation Advisory Committee members named. The CFTC named the committee's members. They include the chief executives of Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, CME Group and DraftKings and the president of FanDuel.

Source: CFTC Release 9182-26

Congress

Titus bill would bar sports and casino-style contracts. Rep. Dina Titus introduced H.R. 7477, the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act, to bar prediction markets from offering sports-event and casino-style contracts.

Source: H.R. 7477 bill text (GovInfo)

Justice Department

SDNY U.S. Attorney signals scrutiny of prediction markets. Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York said his office was examining prediction-market conduct under federal fraud statutes.

Source: K&L Gates 2026 Mid-Year Prediction Market Report (citing Bloomberg)

CFTC rulemaking

CFTC withdraws 2024 event-contracts proposal and sports advisory. The Commission withdrew the June 2024 event-contracts proposal, and staff withdrew Staff Letter 25-36. Selig said the agency would start a new event-contracts rulemaking based on its reading of the CEA.

Source: CFTC Release 9179-26

CFTC guidance

Selig's first public remarks endorse prediction markets. In his first public remarks as Chairman, Selig spoke favorably of prediction markets and said he had directed staff to withdraw the 2024 proposal and the 2025 sports advisory.

Source: K&L Gates 2026 Mid-Year Prediction Market Report

Market milestone

Robinhood reports 3.4 billion event contracts traded in January. Robinhood, which offers event contracts as a futures commission merchant, preliminarily reported about 3.4 billion event contracts traded in January 2026, after more than 12 billion in all of 2025.

Source: K&L Gates 2026 Mid-Year Prediction Market Report

CFTC guidance

Selig launches CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee. Selig replaced the Technology Advisory Committee with a new Innovation Advisory Committee to advise the Commission on emerging products, platforms and business models.

Source: CFTC Release 9167-26

Congress

House bill would bar officials from trading on inside information. Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced H.R. 7004, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, the first 2026 bill aimed at trading by federal officials. A bipartisan Senate companion (S. 4188) followed in March.

Source: H.R. 7004 bill text (GovInfo)

CFTC guidance

Michael Selig sworn in as CFTC Chairman. After Senate confirmation, Michael S. Selig was sworn in as the 16th Chairman of the CFTC. He has since led the agency's prediction-market rulemakings and its lawsuits against states.

Source: CFTC Release 9164-25

CFTC guidance

CFTC staff issue event-contract no-action letters. The Divisions of Market Oversight and Clearing and Risk issued no-action letters (Staff Letters 25-44, 25-45, 25-47 and 25-48) giving several registered entities relief from certain swap recordkeeping and SDR reporting requirements for binary event contracts.

Source: CFTC Release 9154-25

CFTC designation

Amended designation lets Polymarket US offer intermediated access. The CFTC approved an amended order of designation for QCX LLC (Polymarket US). It lets the exchange run an intermediated platform and onboard customers through futures commission merchants and brokers.

Source: Covers

Market milestone

DraftKings acquires CFTC-registered Railbird Exchange. DraftKings entered the CFTC-regulated market by buying Railbird Exchange, an already designated exchange, rather than applying for a new designation.

Source: SBC Americas

CFTC guidance

CFTC staff issues sports event contracts advisory (Staff Letter 25-36). Commission staff issued an advisory to certain contract markets about sports-related event contracts. Staff withdrew it in February 2026, after the Chairman said it had created confusion.

Source: CFTC Release 9179-26 (describing Staff Letter 25-36)

CFTC designation

CFTC designates QCX LLC, later Polymarket US. The CFTC designated QCX LLC as a contract market. Polymarket announced in July 2025 that it was buying QCX and its affiliated clearinghouse (QCEX) for a reported $112 million, and QCX now operates under the name Polymarket US.

Source: CFTC DCM filing page, QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US

CFTC in court

CFTC moves to drop its appeal in KalshiEX v. CFTC. Under the new administration, the CFTC filed an unopposed motion to voluntarily dismiss its D.C. Circuit appeal, leaving the 2024 district court ruling in place. Trade press reported on May 8, 2025 that the court had granted the dismissal.

Source: Cointelegraph

Market milestone

Kalshi launches sports event contracts. Kalshi began offering contracts on sports outcomes in January 2025. Those products became the focus of most later state enforcement and federal preemption litigation.

Source: Front Office Sports

Federal court

D.C. Circuit denies CFTC stay; election contracts go live. A D.C. Circuit panel (Millett, Pillard and Pan) in No. 24-5205 denied the CFTC's stay motion without prejudice, finding no showing of irreparable harm, and dissolved the administrative stay. The merits were left undecided.

Source: D.C. Circuit opinion, No. 24-5205

CFTC in court

CFTC appeals the Kalshi ruling and seeks a stay. The CFTC filed a notice of appeal to the D.C. Circuit and an emergency motion to stay the district court's judgment while the appeal was pending.

Source: Davis Wright Tremaine

Federal court

D.D.C. vacates CFTC order in KalshiEX v. CFTC. Judge Jia M. Cobb granted Kalshi summary judgment in No. 1:23-cv-03257 and vacated the CFTC's September 2023 order blocking the congressional-control contracts, with a memorandum opinion to follow.

Source: D.D.C. Order, ECF 47 (CourtListener)

CFTC rulemaking

CFTC publishes 2024 event-contracts proposal. The Commission published a proposed rule titled "Event Contracts" (89 FR 48968) to amend Rule 40.11. Commentators describe it as effectively barring political-contest contracts, among others. It was never finalized and was withdrawn on February 4, 2026.

Source: CFTC Release 9179-26 (describing the June 10, 2024 proposal)

CFTC rulemaking

CFTC disapproves Kalshi's congressional-control contracts. Using CEA Section 5c(c)(5)(C) and Rule 40.11, the Commission barred Kalshi from listing contracts on which party would control each chamber of Congress. It found they involved unlawful gaming under state law and were contrary to the public interest. Commissioner Mersinger dissented.

Source: CFTC Release 8780-23

CFTC designation

CFTC designates KalshiEX as a contract market. The CFTC issued an order designating KalshiEX LLC as a designated contract market (DCM) under CEA Section 5. It became the first federally regulated exchange built around event contracts.

Source: CFTC Release 8302-20