{
  "source": "https://predictionmarketlaws.com",
  "license": "Free to reuse with a link to predictionmarketlaws.com",
  "checked": "2026-10-21",
  "note": "Pending and resolved legal questions. Not odds or forecasts.",
  "questions": [
    {
      "id": "scotus-new-jersey",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will the Supreme Court hear New Jersey's appeal in its fight with Kalshi?",
      "venue": "Supreme Court",
      "states": [
        "NJ"
      ],
      "case_slug": "flaherty-v-kalshiex-scotus",
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-09-08",
        "label": "Docketed"
      },
      "next": {
        "date": "2026-11-09",
        "label": "Kalshi's response due"
      },
      "resolves": "Yes if the Court grants review in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No if it denies the petition.",
      "docket": "Supreme Court No. 26-299",
      "source_url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/26-299.html",
      "source_name": "Supreme Court docket"
    },
    {
      "id": "sdny-new-york",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will a federal judge block New York from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets?",
      "venue": "Federal court, S.D.N.Y.",
      "states": [
        "NY"
      ],
      "case_slug": "us-v-new-york",
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-09-14",
        "label": "Argued"
      },
      "next": {
        "date": "2026-10-23",
        "label": "New York's optional reply on the CFTC's new rules due"
      },
      "resolves": "Yes if the court grants the federal government's preliminary injunction motion in United States v. New York, in whole or in part. No if it denies it.",
      "docket": "S.D.N.Y. No. 1:26-cv-03404",
      "source_url": "https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/legal/",
      "source_name": "DeFi Rate tracker"
    },
    {
      "id": "michigan-contempt",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will a Michigan judge hold Kalshi in contempt?",
      "venue": "State court, Michigan",
      "states": [
        "MI"
      ],
      "case_slug": "mi-v-kalshi-ingham",
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-09-29",
        "label": "Motion filed"
      },
      "next": {
        "date": "2026-11-24",
        "label": "Show-cause hearing"
      },
      "resolves": "Yes if the Ingham County court finds Kalshi in civil contempt of its Sept. 1 injunction, No if it declines.",
      "docket": "Ingham County Circuit Court No. 26-1087-CZ",
      "source_url": "https://defirate.com/news/michigan-wants-kalshi-held-in-contempt-as-state-crackdown-moves-beyond-trading/",
      "source_name": "DeFi Rate"
    },
    {
      "id": "scotus-robinhood",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will the Supreme Court hear Robinhood's challenge to Nevada's gaming regulators?",
      "venue": "Supreme Court",
      "states": [
        "NV"
      ],
      "case_slug": "robinhood-v-dreitzer-scotus",
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-09-14",
        "label": "Docketed"
      },
      "next": {
        "date": "2026-11-13",
        "label": "Responses due"
      },
      "resolves": "Yes if the Court grants review in Robinhood Derivatives v. Dreitzer, No if it denies the petition.",
      "docket": "Supreme Court No. 26-338",
      "source_url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/26-338.html",
      "source_name": "Supreme Court docket"
    },
    {
      "id": "scotus-crypto-com",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will the Supreme Court hear Crypto.com's case against Nevada?",
      "venue": "Supreme Court",
      "states": [
        "NV"
      ],
      "case_slug": "nadex-v-nevada-scotus",
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-09-15",
        "label": "Docketed"
      },
      "next": {
        "date": "2026-11-16",
        "label": "Responses due"
      },
      "resolves": "Yes if the Court grants review in North American Derivatives Exchange v. Nevada, No if it denies the petition.",
      "docket": "Supreme Court No. 26-344",
      "source_url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/26-344.html",
      "source_name": "Supreme Court docket"
    },
    {
      "id": "eighth-circuit-iowa",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will the Eighth Circuit reverse the ruling against Kalshi in Iowa?",
      "venue": "Federal appeals, 8th Cir.",
      "states": [
        "IA"
      ],
      "case_slug": "kalshi-v-bird-8th-cir",
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-09-17",
        "label": "Appeal docketed"
      },
      "next": {
        "date": "2026-11-06",
        "label": "Kalshi's opening brief due"
      },
      "resolves": "Yes if the court reverses or vacates the denial of Kalshi's preliminary injunction in KalshiEX v. Bird, No if it affirms.",
      "docket": "Eighth Circuit No. 26-2874",
      "source_url": "https://dockets.justia.com/docket/circuit-courts/ca8/26-2874",
      "source_name": "Court docket"
    },
    {
      "id": "fourth-circuit-maryland",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will the Fourth Circuit reverse the ruling against Kalshi in Maryland?",
      "venue": "Federal appeals, 4th Cir.",
      "states": [
        "MD"
      ],
      "case_slug": "kalshi-v-martin-4th-cir",
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-05-07",
        "label": "Argued",
        "since": "since argument"
      },
      "next": null,
      "resolves": "Yes if the court reverses or vacates the denial of Kalshi's preliminary injunction in KalshiEX v. Martin, No if it affirms.",
      "docket": "Fourth Circuit No. 25-1892",
      "source_url": "https://dockets.justia.com/docket/circuit-courts/ca4/25-1892",
      "source_name": "Court docket"
    },
    {
      "id": "sixth-circuit-en-banc",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will the Sixth Circuit rehear the Ohio and Tennessee cases?",
      "venue": "Federal appeals, 6th Cir.",
      "states": [
        "OH",
        "TN"
      ],
      "case_slug": "kalshi-v-schuler-6th-cir",
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "label": "Petition filed",
        "since": "since the petition"
      },
      "next": null,
      "resolves": "Yes if the court grants panel rehearing or rehearing en banc in KalshiEX v. Schuler and KalshiEX v. Orgel, No if it denies both.",
      "docket": "Sixth Circuit Nos. 26-3196 and 26-5235",
      "source_url": "https://www.nextpredict.io/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Kalshi-rehearing-petition-sixth-circuit.pdf",
      "source_name": "Kalshi's petition (PDF)"
    },
    {
      "id": "ninth-circuit-en-banc",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will the Ninth Circuit rehear Kalshi's Nevada case en banc?",
      "venue": "Federal appeals, 9th Cir.",
      "states": [
        "NV"
      ],
      "case_slug": "kalshi-v-assad-9th-cir",
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-09-09",
        "label": "Petition filed",
        "since": "since the petition"
      },
      "next": null,
      "resolves": "Yes if the court grants rehearing en banc in KalshiEX v. Assad, No if it denies it.",
      "docket": "Ninth Circuit No. 25-7516",
      "source_url": "https://defirate.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/kalshivknudsendismissalrequest.pdf",
      "source_name": "Court filing citing the petition (PDF)"
    },
    {
      "id": "massachusetts-sjc",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will Massachusetts' highest court uphold the injunction against Kalshi?",
      "venue": "State supreme court, Mass.",
      "states": [
        "MA"
      ],
      "case_slug": "ma-v-kalshi-sjc",
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-05-04",
        "label": "Argued",
        "since": "since argument"
      },
      "next": null,
      "resolves": "Yes if the Supreme Judicial Court affirms the Superior Court's preliminary injunction against Kalshi, No if it vacates or reverses it.",
      "docket": "Mass. SJC No. SJC-13906",
      "source_url": "https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-04/kalshi-grilled-by-massachusetts-high-court-over-what-gambling-is",
      "source_name": "Bloomberg"
    },
    {
      "id": "tenth-circuit-utah",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will the Tenth Circuit reverse Utah's win over Kalshi?",
      "venue": "Federal appeals, 10th Cir.",
      "states": [
        "UT"
      ],
      "case_slug": "kalshi-v-cox-10th-cir",
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-08-05",
        "label": "Appeal docketed",
        "since": "since the appeal was docketed"
      },
      "next": null,
      "resolves": "Yes if the court reverses or vacates the district court's judgment for Utah in KalshiEx v. Cox, No if it affirms.",
      "docket": "Tenth Circuit No. 26-4100",
      "source_url": "https://dockets.justia.com/docket/circuit-courts/ca10/26-4100",
      "source_name": "Court docket"
    },
    {
      "id": "cftc-public-interest-rule",
      "status": "open",
      "question": "Will the CFTC finalize its public-interest rule for event contracts?",
      "venue": "CFTC rulemaking",
      "states": [],
      "case_slug": null,
      "opened": {
        "date": "2026-07-27",
        "label": "Comments closed",
        "since": "since comments closed"
      },
      "next": null,
      "resolves": "Yes if the CFTC publishes a final rule (RIN 3038-AF65) in the Federal Register, No if it withdraws the proposal.",
      "docket": "Federal Register, 91 FR 35806",
      "source_url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-12/pdf/2026-11854.pdf",
      "source_name": "Federal Register (PDF)"
    },
    {
      "id": "illinois-injunction",
      "status": "resolved",
      "question": "Will a federal judge block Illinois from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets?",
      "venue": "Federal court, N.D. Ill.",
      "states": [
        "IL"
      ],
      "case_slug": "us-v-illinois",
      "resolved": {
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "outcome": "Yes, in part",
        "note": "On Oct. 2, Judge Pacold granted the preliminary-injunction motions in part in the Kalshi, Coinbase and federal cases; fee challenges were held for more briefing. The injunction itself has not been entered; proposed terms are due Oct. 29."
      },
      "docket": "N.D. Ill. No. 1:26-cv-03659",
      "source_url": "https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ilnd.498112/gov.uscourts.ilnd.498112.99.0.pdf",
      "source_name": "Opinion and order (PDF)"
    },
    {
      "id": "sixth-circuit-panel",
      "status": "resolved",
      "question": "Will a Sixth Circuit panel side with Kalshi against Ohio and Tennessee?",
      "venue": "Federal appeals, 6th Cir.",
      "states": [
        "OH",
        "TN"
      ],
      "case_slug": "kalshi-v-schuler-6th-cir",
      "resolved": {
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "outcome": "No",
        "note": "The panel affirmed the denial of Kalshi's injunction in Ohio and vacated Kalshi's injunction in Tennessee and remanded. Kalshi has asked for rehearing."
      },
      "docket": "Sixth Circuit Nos. 26-3196 and 26-5235",
      "source_url": "https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca6/26-3196/26-3196-2026-09-25.html",
      "source_name": "Opinion"
    },
    {
      "id": "iowa-injunction",
      "status": "resolved",
      "question": "Will a federal judge grant Kalshi a preliminary injunction against Iowa?",
      "venue": "Federal court, S.D. Iowa",
      "states": [
        "IA"
      ],
      "case_slug": "kalshi-v-bird-sdiowa",
      "resolved": {
        "date": "2026-09-08",
        "outcome": "No",
        "note": "Judge Locher denied Kalshi's preliminary injunction. Kalshi appealed to the Eighth Circuit."
      },
      "docket": "S.D. Iowa No. 4:26-cv-00109",
      "source_url": "https://courthousenews.com/federal-judge-squashes-kalshi-bid-to-block-prediction-market-regulation-by-iowa/",
      "source_name": "Courthouse News"
    },
    {
      "id": "tenth-circuit-stay",
      "status": "resolved",
      "question": "Will the Tenth Circuit shield Kalshi from Utah while it appeals?",
      "venue": "Federal appeals, 10th Cir.",
      "states": [
        "UT"
      ],
      "case_slug": "kalshi-v-cox-10th-cir",
      "resolved": {
        "date": "2026-09-08",
        "outcome": "No",
        "note": "The court denied Kalshi's emergency motion for an injunction pending appeal."
      },
      "docket": "Tenth Circuit No. 26-4100",
      "source_url": "https://sbcamericas.com/2026/09/08/kalshi-denied-tenth-circuit-appeal/",
      "source_name": "SBC Americas"
    },
    {
      "id": "michigan-injunction",
      "status": "resolved",
      "question": "Will a Michigan judge grant a preliminary injunction against Kalshi's sports contracts?",
      "venue": "State court, Michigan",
      "states": [
        "MI"
      ],
      "case_slug": "mi-v-kalshi-ingham",
      "resolved": {
        "date": "2026-09-01",
        "outcome": "Yes",
        "note": "Judge Aquilina's Sept. 1 order, following a June 29 temporary restraining order, requires Kalshi to stop sports contracts in Michigan and geoblock the state until a final order."
      },
      "docket": "Ingham County Circuit Court No. 26-1087-CZ",
      "source_url": "https://www.michigan.gov/ag/-/media/Project/Websites/AG/releases/2026/September/Kalshi-Preliminary-Injunction-Order-Signed-Sep-1-2026.pdf?rev=c48b59e8df064e538a16b98534aef460&hash=CC10EFB6121ECBC410DD9383C21D13AC",
      "source_name": "Court order (PDF)"
    },
    {
      "id": "minnesota-ban",
      "status": "resolved",
      "question": "Will a federal court block Minnesota's prediction market ban from taking effect against the exchanges that sued?",
      "venue": "Federal court, D. Minn.",
      "states": [
        "MN"
      ],
      "case_slug": "us-v-minnesota",
      "resolved": {
        "date": "2026-07-27",
        "outcome": "Yes",
        "note": "Judge Menendez preliminarily enjoined enforcement of the ban against the exchanges that sued, days before its Aug. 1 effective date, in the federal, Kalshi and Polymarket US cases."
      },
      "docket": "D. Minn. No. 0:26-cv-02661",
      "source_url": "https://legalsportsreport.com/270988/judge-blocks-minnesotas-bill-banning-prediction-markets",
      "source_name": "Legal Sports Report"
    },
    {
      "id": "third-circuit-new-jersey",
      "status": "resolved",
      "question": "Will the Third Circuit keep Kalshi's injunction against New Jersey in place?",
      "venue": "Federal appeals, 3d Cir.",
      "states": [
        "NJ"
      ],
      "case_slug": "kalshi-v-flaherty-3d-cir",
      "resolved": {
        "date": "2026-04-06",
        "outcome": "Yes",
        "note": "A divided panel affirmed the preliminary injunction, 2-1. New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to review it."
      },
      "docket": "Third Circuit No. 25-1922",
      "source_url": "https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca3/25-1922/25-1922-2026-04-06.html",
      "source_name": "Opinion"
    }
  ]
}